Consumers crave cookies

While new cookie varieties and special packaging are going strong, old favorites also are seeing a boom on grocery shelves. Whether this is because of the consumer's desire for happier times or other reasons, the cookie market is very strong.

Kellogg, Battle Creek, Mich., with its Keebler and Lu cookie brands, is seeing growth in all areas of the cookie market, but one trend stands out: consumers' desire for traditional varieties or well-known brands. “They seem less likely to try something completely new when they are not sure their whole family will like it. The increased reliance on old favorites is due to the weaker economy and the desire to make sure every purchase will be consumed happily and not left in the pantry,” says Aleta Chase, Keebler senior manager.

Keebler's top three offerings, Chips Deluxe Rainbow, Fudge Shoppe Fudge Stripes and Pecan Sandies, are doing extremely well. Chase notes that all have been leading category performers for many years and are the cookies that consumers remember from their childhoods.

The Kroger Co., Cincinnati, one of Kellogg's top customers, also is seeing strong cookie sales, especially when it factors in sales from its in-store bakeries. Both the in-store bakery and commercial shelf are seeing a boom in the sale of all types of cookies. So much so that Kroger's bakery is adding co-packers to help it meet the demand, something it has never had to do before.

“We can't keep up. We literally can't make enough cookies to fully supply our in-stores' demand. We've spent much more time this year approving co-packers to help us make our existing lines of products than in developing new cookie products,” says Joel Payne, manager-corporate food technology, bakery team for Kroger.

The high demand also filters down to cookie equipment manufacturers. Pro BAKE Inc., Twinsburg, Ohio, a full line supplier of professional bakery equipment and accessories, sees cookies as a very diverse segment of the overall bakery equipment market.

“Additional machines are often required to meet production requirements or to permit several items to be produced concurrently. Depending on the size of the bakery, the option for industrial scale production must be available to meet the demand of what is being produced on the smaller scale as the need arises,” says John Olejko, pro BAKE sales consultant.

Divided growth areas

While traditional varieties are booming, a substantial consumer base can be found in the healthful eating trend. Healthful cookies are a good growth market, especially the portion-control segment. While typically more expensive than standard cookie packaging, the 100-calorie packs are still strong in some consumer areas.

“We see consumers shifting their cookie consumption in two directions. Some consumers are looking for cookie options that can provide them more balance, such as reduced calories, reduced fat or the addition of positive ingredients. Other consumers are looking for true everyday indulgence. We are focused on delivering new options in both of these areas,” Chase says.

The same is true for Kroger, with in-store bakery cookies seeing a rise in both standard varieties and fat-free, sugar-free and other healthful options. “Our internal view is that customers are tending toward more at-home eating in difficult times. Our marketing groups have been doing broad-scale promotions that tie in with this broader trend,” Payne says.

In the equipment area, pro BAKE sees no two bakeries that are alike. All have unique and widely varying needs. Olejko notes that bakers want accessories that permit a machine to be used for the production of many different items. In many cases, custom accessories are required to do the job. The possibility of upgrading a machine in the field years down the road is important as new opportunities and market conditions change.

“Keeping in line with this goal, pro BAKE is now offering a cookie depositor that will permit the operator to input changes to an item interactively,” Olejko says.

Projections for the future

In keeping with the move of consumers favoring well-known brands, Kellogg recently purchased Mother's brand, which was a consumer favorite in the western United States. “These consumers are delighted with the re-appearance of their favorite cookies that they feared were gone forever,” Chase says. “The cookie category still has good potential for growth. Those who can address changing consumer needs without sacrificing taste quality, and value will be well positioned.”

From all perspectives, the cookie market is strong and will continue to grow and diversify in the coming year, riding out the hard economic times with sweet success.

TOP10 Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales (millions)

Cookie Brand Names	Dollar Sales	% Change Year Ago		Unit Sales	% Change Year Ago
Private Label	$513.2	↑	13.9%	221.5	↓	10.4%
Nabisco Chips Ahoy	290.7	↑	3.6	102.1	↓	3.1
Nabisco Oreo	230.3	↑	8.1	73.4	↑	0.7
Nabisco Double Stuff Oreo	152.9	↑	6.6	49.1	↑	0.5
Lofthouse	131.2	↑	3.8	35.1	↓	2.0
Little Debbie	111.0	↑	3.4	74.9	↓	9.1
Pepperidge Farm	79.8	↑	0.1	26.0	↓	4.9
Nabisco Newtons	78.0	↓	11.5	21.2	↓	18.5
Pepperidge Farm Milano	71.3	↑	1.0	23.7	↓	1.3
Nabisco Nilla	70.9	↑	4.8	20.3	↓	3.8
Source: Infoscan Reviews, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), Aug. 9, 2009

Fresh Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Aug. 9: $ Sales	% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Aug. 9 Unit Sales	% Change Prior Year
Cakes (excl snack/coffee cakes)	$709,562,700	↑	3.6%	135,564,800	↑	2.1%
Pies (excl snack pies)	210,006,200	↑	2.1	44,260,650	↓	1.0
English Muffins	547,074,400	↑	2.3	220,304,600	↑	0.0
Rolls/Buns/Croissants	1,104,027,000	↑	11.4	451,081,600	↑	3.5
Bagels/Bialys	553,961,000	↑	6.4	183,367,600	↑	2.7
Bread	6,654,319,000	↑	2.4	3,008,185,100	↓	4.5
Donuts	658,500,200	↑	5.3	256,713,400	↑	2.1
Muffins	314,186,700	↑	1.8	105,220,400	↑	2.0
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	656,105,000	↓	0.3	269,928,700	↓	6.1

Refrigerated Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Aug. 9: $ Sales	% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Aug. 9 Unit Sales	% Change Prior Year
Bagels/Bialys	$61,031,480	↑	8.5%	37,660,220	↓	4.3%
Bread	3,874,403	↑	1.9	1,280,028	↓	4.6
Cakes (excl snack/coffee cakes)	74,771,250	↑	2.3	9,974,805	↑	5.7
Dinner/Sandwich Rolls/Croissants	1,009,989	↓	30.8	424,828	↓	39.3
English Muffins	39,067,930	↑	6.9	19,839,950	↑	2.2
Muffins	74,033	↓	54.2	13,921	↓	59.3
Pastry/Danish/Coffeecakes	7,335,107	↑	6.5	1,869,307	↑	3.5
Pies (excl snack pies)	22,654,030	↑	4.2	3,991,176	↓	2.3
Snack Cakes/Donuts	5,262,033	↑	9.8	1,176,992	↑	9.9
Cheesecakes	106,784,800	↑	1.2	13,693,560	↓	2.0
Biscuit Dough	382,446,800	↑	7.2	288,942,000	↓	0.6
Bread/Rolls/Pastry Dough	269,674,800	↑	3.6	126,615,600	↓	2.0
Pastry/Dumpling Dough	321,919,200	↑	5.3	133,705,800	↑	0.2

Frozen Bakery Products	52 weeks ended Aug. 9: $ Sales	% Change Prior Year		52 weeks ended Aug. 9 Unit Sales	% Change Prior Year
Bread/Rolls/Pastry Dough	$131,163,100	↑	8.6%	40,893,080	↓	1.5%
Cookie Dough	5,270,168	↓	1.3	1,243,495	↓	11.4
Fresh Baked Bread/Rolls/Biscuits	554,393,000	↑	5.4	208,646,900	↑	0.4
Bagels	71,544,340	↑	28.3	37,088,780	↑	3.1
Muffins	25,112,980	↑	37.0	7,300,978	↑	25.0
Cookies	325,534	↑	345.5	87,893	↑	275.9
Cheesecakes	67,485,110	↑	0.3	12,193,520	↓	9.4
Sweetgoods (excl cheesecakes)	215,169,500	↑	2.2	55,480,430	↓	3.9
Pies	336,979,200	↓	2.9	74,843,460	↓	13.4
Source: Infoscan Reviews, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), Aug. 9, 2009