Changing customer perceptions about what constitutes “fast food” could be a boon for bakeries that feature café sales.

MacKie predicts that bakeries will continue to eliminate costs in their production and distribution systems. “This will be particularly important if, as some are predicting, commodity prices trend upward in the second quarter. Retailers are not likely to want to pass along or absorb these costs in the current economic climate.”

In 2010, the economy will be the most influential factor affecting bakery businesses, but bakers will need to watch and adapt to several other trends in the marketplace to retain and attract customers. These trends will affect the baking industry as a whole, from large commercial bakeries to small retail bakeries.

Quality, value still king

Throughout the recent economic upheaval, quality remained the one constant. Bakers should continue to leverage themselves by offering quality baked products at reasonable prices, Seppi says. In the marketplace's current state, price takes center stage. When asked how consumers will define value in bakery products this year, Nick Pyle, president, Independent Bakers Association, Washington, D.C., boiled it down concisely. “One word—price.”

Product price may be the most compelling factor, but consumers also are looking at nutritional value, convenience and product quality for the price to define value, MacKie says. Consumers will continue to worry about total food expenditures, but as unemployment begins to recede they will begin to splurge again, Cardey adds.

Sustainability

Sustainability will remain an issue, and increasingly skeptical consumers want more proof about “green” practices. According to Mintel research, 25 percent of consumers are suspicious when a company claims to be green. “In a bad economy, the majority of consumers won't prioritize the environment if it causes their grocery bill to rise. However, once the recession ends, this will be on top of many people's demand list,” Klecko says.

Building a LEED-certified bakery may be the ultimate goal in sustainability, but smaller steps can accomplish much the same thing in consumers' eyes.

Good stewardship is vital to bakeries, says John Popp, president, Aunt Millie's Bakeries, Fort Wayne, Ind. “Consumers appreciate and will reward businesses that recycle, help keep our air and water clean and conserve our natural resources. That's good business.”

Costeaux French Bakery will implement food scrap recycling next month where table food, food scraps and unusable stales will be composted.

Last fall, the American Bakers Association partnered with the Allied Trades of the Baking Industry to begin working on an industry “Sustainability Scorecard.” The scorecard will put bakers and their suppliers on the same page in how to measure the results of sustainability initiatives, MacKie says.

Health and wellness

Demand for healthful products continues to grow despite the economy, but health can mean a lot of different things in bakery—whole grains, trans fat-free, low sodium, sugar-free, etc., says Tammy Kampsula, bakery director, United Supermarkets, Lubbock, Texas. United's in-store bakeries are developing new products that incorporate chia seeds in their formulations. Chia seeds are gluten-free and high in fiber and omega-3s, some of the current buzzwords in healthful eating.

Products that address diet restrictions due to disease, such as sugar-free for diabetics or gluten-free for those with celiac disease, seem to be gaining the most traction. In Modern Baking's 2009 Retail Bakery Research, full-line operators rated the health concerns most affecting their bakeries. Sugar-free requests topped the list at 15 percent, followed by gluten-free or allergen-free at 12 percent. Whole grain (11 percent), natural/organic (9 percent) and trans fat-free (7 percent) rounded out the top five.