2010 Baking Industry Forecast
The coming year poses a host of questions and challenges for bakers–the most pressing being how to attract consumer dollars in the current economic climate. By most counts, 2010 will usher in a slow recovery, and bakers will need to address several trends to help generate sales.
Simple, clean products
If 2009 was about low cost, 2010 is all about less is more. Consumers are looking for products with clean labels that contain the fewest ingredients and no additives, reports USA Today. In a recent Modern Baking roundtable discussion, Klecko emphasized the importance of “clean” products, as his specialty wholesale bakery had lost some customers due to the fact that there were chemical preservatives in the products.
Offering unique products will differientiate your bakery from the competition and attract customers.
In the Chicago Tribune's list of top nutrition trends for 2010, simplicity as the new sophistication ranked second. The concept of less is more will be manifested in less packaging, shorter ingredient lists and more understandable ingredients, Lynn Dornblaser, Mintel's new products analyst told the newspaper.
Rise of foodservice
Food sales in supermarkets have outperformed non-food department sales, according to Nielsen Co., as consumers have begun cooking more meals at home. While consumers will likely continue to eat at home more than in the past, MacKie senses a slight shift back to foodservice. “I believe that we will see modest growth in foodservice as consumers become slightly fatigued with meals at home. The overall category is likely to show modest growth in sales volume.”
Changing perceptions also will affect where consumers spend their food dollars. The definition of fast food has expanded beyond the hamburger and chicken chains to include the fast casual segment, such as bakery cafés, which serve food quickly but emphasize product flavor and quality. Menus are moving away from cost-savings that were so important last year and are instead incorporating high-quality ingredients, according to Mintel. “In 2010, we expect menus to go back to the basic roots of good food and drink,” says Maria Caranfia, registered dietician and senior analyst for Mintel Menu Insights.
Emergence of social networking
The proliferation of smartphones and other advances in technology have made it easier for consumers to stay tuned in and in touch. They are looking to make connections and are turning to social networking sites to do it. And, they are using these sites as more than a place to find “friends.” Consumers are looking for real information from and real interaction with companies.
“It isn't enough to put up a Facebook page; you have to attach it to specific targets,” Klecko says. “You have to have a well thought-out campaign.”
One of the biggest benefits to bakers is the ability to engage in “real” time with customers. “Because of our ‘now’ society, having the ability to respond virtually immediately with information can make the difference in booking a sale,” Seppi says. “Additionally, timely responding to online comments on sites, such as Yelp! or Chow Hound and other consumer review sites, has become increasingly important.”
The sites also provide a platform for bakers to engage consumers in a dialogue on making baked products part of a healthful and balanced lifestyle, MacKie says. “Frankly, much of the misinformation surrounding grains and healthy lifestyles has been spread via the Internet. The social networking venues provide not only the bakers, but the rest of the food industry, a platform to dispel those myths and provide accurate, scientifically based information directly to consumers.”
Changing regulations
Health care reform, immigration, food safety, trans fat bans, calorie count transparency—the list of regulations from federal, state and local governments that affect the baking industry seem almost endless.
Some policies, such as food safety and health care reform, will likely be finalized this year, MacKie says. Legislation to overhaul the nation's food safety system has passed the House of Representatives and is now being considered in the Senate.
Nutrition and obesity policy will be given top priority in 2010, MacKie adds. (First Lady Michelle Obama has already announced that confronting childhood obesity will be her focus this year.) National nutrition guidelines are being reviewed, and substantial issues, such as added sugar, high fructose corn syrup, sodium and the balance of whole and enriched grains, are under discussion.
The forecast for 2010: cloudy. Until people are back to work, consumer spending will remain well below pre-recession levels. Offering a quality product at a reasonable price will help bakers weather the uncertain climate.
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