Supermarket bagel sales were on the rise from 2006 through 2008, but have leveled off since 2009. The bagel category includes assorted/variety, regular, gourmet/large, mini/bite/chunk and other bagels. The national average bagel contribution to the in-store bakery was 2.9 percent in the 52 weeks ending April 30, 2011, losing only 0.1 percent share from the previous year.
Bagels averaged $296 per store per week nationally during this 52-week span, a 0.7 percent increase from the previous year. Historically, bagels have increased sales since 2006; however, they saw a slight decline in average dollar sales in 2010.
Weekly dollar sales for bagels varied throughout the year. The category saw its highest sales nationally during the week of March 26, 2011, with $317 per store per week and 9 percent growth from the previous year due to more price promotions. Another significant peak week was Jan. 15, 2011, when dollar sales averaged $316 per week per store, giving bagels 1.4 percent growth compared to the prior year. Bagels saw their lowest sales of $269 per store during the week of April 30, 2011; this low point corresponds to the week following Easter, which historically registers a drop.
Average bagel category weekly dollar sales varied by region. The East region had the highest average sales with $677 per store per week, which was up 0.5 percent compared to the previous year and was more than double the national average. The East region also had the largest bagel dollar contribution to the bakery department at 4.8 percent.
The East region generally sells more bagels and muffins compared to other regions, whereas Central region consumers tend to purchase more donuts. The Central region had average weekly bagel sales of $204 per store and demonstrated the largest dollar growth, up 4.5 percent. Given this growth, it’s possible that consumers in the Central region are shifting their breakfast purchase trends toward items they perceive to be more healthful.
In East and Central regions, the largest growth occurred in regular and assorted/variety bagels, with 10 percent and 12.6 percent increases, respectively. The South region had the largest decrease in bagel sales compared to other regions, down 2.6 percent from the previous year.
Within the bagel category, assorted/variety bagels accounted for 53.1 percent of category sales nationally, followed by regular bagels at 29.5 percent and gourmet/large bagels at 12.4 percent. The smaller category contributors included mini/bite/chunk bagels (3.8 percent) and other bagels, including bagel chips and bialys (1.2 percent).
This sales review is provided by the Perishables Group, Inc., a Chicago-based fresh food consulting firm. Reported results are for May 8, 2010, through April 30, 2011, representing more than 63 percent of national supermarket ACV share. For more information, contact Perishables Group: Kelli Beckel, 773/929.7013; email: KelliB@perishablesgroup.com.