Bagels have gradually declined as consumers turn to other breakfast options within the bakery. Bagel dollar sales have decreased 3.1 percent nationally since 2009. One-count/bulk bagels were the category’s key performance driver, contributing more than half of bagels’ dollar share and increasing 0.2 percent. However, declining sales in the other bagel varieties overpowered 1-count/bulk bagel performance and contributed to overall category sales decreases, as bagel dollars declined 0.6 percent in the latest 52-week period.
In the 52 weeks ending Sept. 29, 2012, bagels’ average contribution to the in-store bakery was 2.3 percent, a 0.2 point decrease from the previous year’s share. The bagel category is composed of 1-count/bulk, 6-count, 2- to 5-count, mini and all other bagels. Nationally, bagels averaged $249 per store per week, a 4.0 percent decrease from the previous year.
Bagel sales remained steady throughout the year with sales spikes occurring during holidays, including Christmas, Hanukkah and Yom Kippur. Bagels experienced peak sales during the week leading up to Christmas, with $268 per store per week. Bagels saw their lowest sales the following week (ending Dec. 31, 2011) with $230 per store.
Average weekly sales for the bagels category decreased in all U.S. regions compared to the previous year. The East region maintained the highest average weekly dollar sales at $611 per store, more than double the national average, but decreased average dollar sales 1.8 percent. In addition to outperforming the national average in weekly dollar sales, the East region surpassed the 2.3 percent national contribution to the bakery department with a 4.4 percent contribution. The Central region had the most significant decrease in average weekly bagel sales, down 10.8 percent. The South region followed, as average dollar sales fell 8.3 percent while the West region decreased 3.2 percent during the 52-week period.
Within the bagels category, 1-count/bulk bagels accounted for 53.1 percent of category sales, followed by all other bagels at 20.7 percent. The remaining category contributions included 6-count bagels at 13.6 percent, 2 to 5-count bagels at 8.9 percent with mini bagels representing the remaining 3.8 percent. Two- to 5-count bagels was the only package size to increase dollar sales, up 1.8 percent, while the other four bagel types decreased dollar sales compared to the previous year.
As a category, bagels are losing momentum within the in-store bakery. Dollar velocity declined 4.0 percent for bagels overall and decreased 3.1 percent in 1-count/bulk bagels. Bagels experienced the highest sales spikes during the back-to-school period as well as the Jewish holidays of Hanukkah and Yom Kippur. Bagels continue to be outperformed by muffins, donuts and sweetgoods.
This sales review is provided by Nielsen Perishables Group. Based in Chicago, Nielsen Perishables Group specializes in measurement, analytics, marketing communications, category development, promotional best practices and shopper insights. Reported results are for Oct. 1, 2011, through Sept. 29, 2012. Results were compiled from key U.S. grocery, mass/supercenter and club chains, including 17,000 stores nationwide.
For more information, contact Nielsen Perishables Group: Kelli Beckel, 773/929-7013; email: Kelli.Beckel@nielsen.com