The Past 18 Months have been volatile; once commodities and gas prices settled, the economy took a nosedive, and consumers started to closely monitor expenditures. In-store bakers are left to figure out how to generate the most sales in an industry that is impulse-purchase driven. Fortunately, as more consumers eschew restaurants and go to supermarkets more frequently, the in-store bakeries are seeing higher customer counts. And, although bakery items are not a necessity, they are an affordable treat. Traditionally, bakery has proved to be recession resistant.

Bakery products are often the cornerstone of holidays and celebrations, so the baking industry should be able to weather the economic decline. Modern Baking gathered several in-store bakery leaders from different areas of the country to share their predictions for the future of in-store baking and what methods they will employ to ensure the future remains bright. The roundtable sponsor was BakeMark, and following are excerpts from the discussion.

Modern Baking: Before we address the future, let's take a step back and look at the effects of the volatile economy. What have you seen in your markets in the last 18 months?

John Rose: In our case, we've been enjoying additional foot traffic. We accredit that to people not going to restaurants and coming instead to the grocery store. Once customers are in the store, all departments tend to benefit, including the bakery. We've also been trying to do some other things — really trying to play up fresh bread coming out of the oven or fresh cookies — just to promote that we've got them. I mean we've got a captive audience.

“People are trying to eat healthier, but at the same time, they still want that treat.” Steve Schulte, Whole Foods Market

Steve Schulte: Fewer people are going to restaurants and more are really going back to cooking at home again. The store is enjoying the increased foot traffic. At my bakery, people are changing what they're buying. Sandwich bread sales have gone way up as more people are making sandwiches; those who used to go out to lunch every day of the week are now taking bagged lunches a few times a week.

David Hay: We're seeing the opposite — a downward trend in trips, but the average ring is up. So when they come in, they're buying that higher-quality item, but they're unfortunately just not coming as often.

Bill Mihu: We've had a slight drop in unit count. We've just cycled one year with the economic decline, and sales were good, but it was inflationary, which somewhat hid the drop in unit count. One of the things we're trying to do is try to downsize some packaging, going from six-count to four-count on cupcakes. Part of our responsibility in the bakery is commercial bread, and the last year was probably the most volatile time frame for commercial bread that I've ever seen. We saw companies that had three price increases in a year's time; I've never seen that in my whole career. From a sweetgoods standpoint, I was concerned about a walk-away price. I wasn't so afraid of it in the bread side, but in sweetgoods there's not this great connotation that it's healthy for you. That's a concern, and we've kind of hit the wall a little bit on sweetgoods.

MB: Where are you seeing opportunities now? Is there any product trend that seems to be gaining ground, such as gluten-free or sugar-free?

Rose: Prior to the downturn, we were seeing a few requests for a gluten-free product or other specific dietary/nutritional type products. And we were actively pursuing that. But since this shift in the economy — and people have tightened up their spending a little bit — we're not getting the requests. It doesn't mean that the need isn't out there; it doesn't mean they don't want it. But it seems like it just went quiet.

Schulte: For us, our gluten-free is just going through the roof. It's more about customer education because more people are actually being diagnosed with celiac disease. They're reading more about it; they're coming in and looking for it. They're still willing to pay for that product.